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The incumbent will maintain the new PCA equilibrium economic assumptions framework and further develop it as needed in future. The incumbent will manage the provision of assumptions for specific purposes to PCA's local business units ("LBU"s) in Asian markets, allowing for differences from the standard framework which have been agreed and approved for each end-use.

Economic and market assumptions for EEV, Strategic Asset Allocation studies, NBP, Policy Illustrations, some LBU Statutory reporting, Economic Capital and ad-hoc studies of other kinds all rely at least in part on a global framework of long-run "equilibrium" economic and market assumptions.  For each of specific end-use there are additional assumptions and/or overrides decided by relevant PCA and LBU teams but this common framework is the starting point.  In the past these underlying assumptions have been sourced elsewhere in the Prudential Group but in future they will be managed entirely within PCA. 

This assumptions framework is a key dependency in business reporting (EEV, NBP, and any future replacements of these bases), ECap or equivalent bases, statutory reporting in a few LBUs, policy illustrations in a number of LBUs, and internal investigations such as strategic asset allocation studies.

More broadly, PCA Asset Liability Management (“ALM”) Team supports PCA's various Local Business Units (LBUs) in work relating to ALM.  This includes investigation of ALM questions so as to be able to provide appropriate briefings within the Regional Actuarial Function and to other parties within PCA and the LBUs; supporting the LBUs in their analysis of potential changes in asset allocation strategy or other initiatives which may affect the mismatch between assets and liabilities; providing recommendations to RHO parties and LBUs as to potential adjustments to strategy to improve the risk/return trade-off of the risks taken.  The team is also responsible for the asset class models used to produce economic simulations of investment returns which support the stochastic business projections used in calculations for reporting and other work, including the provision of real-world long-run economic market return assumptions tailored to the portfolios of PCA LBUs.

​Key responsibilities:

• Maintain the new PCA Equilibrium Assumptions framework, ensuring that the framework and the specific assumptions within that framework remain up to date as the various sources of information are updated over time.  These assumptions are intended for use by the ALMT and LBUs for investigation of ALM and strategic asset allocation questions.
• Provide assumptions to other teams and LBUs for specific reporting and local purposes, based on the PCA Equilibrium Assumptions framework but with pre-agreed adjustments/overrides appropriate to the specific purpose.
• Update related documentation and ensure it is available on pre-agreed dates.
• Provide expert commentary and discussion on issues related to the meaning and context of PCA's assumptions bases for investment returns and interest rates.
• Undertake research into asset class characteristics.  Participate in the related development of asset modelling approaches and refinements, to ensure that PCA and LBU models using the new asset classes incorporate an appropriate representation of the asset characteristics and that related model limitations are documented and understood.
• Knowledge transfer, training and guidance to junior team members and as well as new staff members in LBUs, in relation to CMA related topics.

Qualifications:

• University graduate in a relevant discipline (eg Actuarial Studies, Economics, Statistics)
• Good grounding in macroeconomics and econometrics.
• Ongoing familiarity with the range of expert views on long-run economic forecasts, with the ability to understand why specific experts disagree on long-term economic forecasts, to explain the key reasons for those disagreements to a range of audiences.
• Familiarity with discounted cashflow valuation techniques, market-consistent valuation and broad ECap concepts (not necessarily in an insurance business context).
• Ideally: Experience in setting long-term best-estimate forward-looking assumptions with reference to historical market data.
• Experience of stochastic financial models, and based on that experience a degree of intuition about the statistical properties of the distributions of outcomes.
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills in English, including the ability and desire to produce good documentation of project work and investigation outcomes.
• Ability to initiate and follow through projects either independently or in collaboration with colleagues in Regional Head Office or LBUs.